Huh?

The New York Times says that persistent high unemployment threatens Obama's chance at reelection. No argument there, but the article drops this nugget: "No American president since Franklin Delano Roosevelt has won a second term in office when the unemployment rate on Election Day topped 7.2 percent. Seventeen months before the next election, it is increasingly clear that President Obama must defy that trend to keep his job."

Some trend. The unemployment rate has been over 7.2 percent on election day when an incumbent president is on the ballot exactly once since the Truman Administration: 1980 (7.5% in November) when Jimmy Carter lost in his attempt at reelection. Ronald Reagan won reelection in 1984 when the November unemployment rate was exactly 7.2 percent. These are the only two times that the unemployment rate has exceeded 7 percent when an incumbent president was up for reelection, so it is equally true to say that "50 percent of American presidents since FDR have won a second term in office when the unemployment rate on Election Day topped 7 percent." Not as compelling a headline however.