What next after bin Laden?

I'm with those who believe that the killing of Osama bin Laden will make it easier for the US to withdraw from Afghanistan (relevant articles here and here). It's been clear for a couple of years now that, surge or no surge, the US cannot "win" in Afghanistan, if winning means wiping out the Taliban as a serious military force and establishing a functioning government that denies sanctuary to terrorists. The best we can do, it seems to me, is to negotiate a deal by which the Taliban remains an important player but perhaps not (for the time being) the dominant force in Afghanistan, with some assurances that Afghanistan won't (for the time being) allow al Qaeda back in. I think Obama recognizes this and his inclination is to stick with his originally stated goal of beginning a withdrawal this summer. I think even Republicans understand this, which is why Afghanistan was not a political issue in 2010 and is not on anyone's radar in the runup to 2012. Bin Laden's killing lets us strike a crappy deal with the Taliban and begin the withdrawal of our forces while declaring victory on the way out.

But there's another possibility that's not as pleasant. That is that our military-industrial / national security-counterterrorism complex will use the success of the bin Laden operation as a pretext for an expansion of our special operations capabilities. Bigger budgets, more of those exciting cloak-and-dagger operations. Why not go after Qaddafi next, will go the argument, and then the slippery slope takes us into operations in Syria, Iran, who knows maybe some day Venezuela or Cuba. This one ended like the final episode of 24, but the next one could end like Black Hawk Down. I hope that ten years from now we don't look back on this and regret the turn in national security policy that the killing of Osama bin Laden engendered.