More simple growth math

Sunday, February 12, 2012

In the last four months, hours worked in the non-government sector in the US has grown at an average rate of 3.4% per month (annualized), according to the BLS's aggregate hours index. Adding growth in the BLS's average work week and payroll employment we get 3.1 percent. Productivity growth in 2010Q1 was 3%. It's unlikely to be higher, but could drop to as low as say 1%. So if current employment trends continue, I'm looking at GDP growth in the 4-6 percent range for the next quarter or two or three. I'm assuming no net contribution from the government sector. Just sayin'.

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