Exercise in Monday morning quarterbacking

Friday, February 3, 2012

Suppose back in 2002 bin Laden hunters had exploited two pretty good theories about Osama bin Laden's likely whereabouts:

1) He was likely (in fact, with probability 88.9%) to be found close to where he was last sighted and in a town rather than a cave.

2) There would be no cellphone or internet activity at his location.

Then suppose they had used satellite and communications technology to locate cellphone and internet deadzones in towns and cities within a 300 km radius of Tora Bora. Focus east of Tora Bora rather than west (toward Kabul). Would they have found his mansion in Abbottabad?

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