Good news, bad news

Saturday, December 10, 2011

Paul Krugman says anyone who calls the -11,000 jobs number for November good news is nuts. Obviously if the economy lost 11,000 jobs a month on average for a long period of time we'd be in bad shape. -11,000 is good news because it shows the economy is turning, not because it's where we want to be. We were in an eighteen wheeler whose brakes had gone out, hurtling towards a cliff. After heroic effort, inches before the precipice, we have turned the truck so we are running along, not toward the cliff. With continued effort we can look forward to turning the truck around completely; and that will be good news.

Krugman's benchmark for good economic news is +300,000 jobs per month. That's sensible. At the current pace of improvement we'll be there by April.

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