Now, trying to understand day-to-day squiggles in bond yields is difficult, some might say futile. Nevertheless, it does not appear that the data is consistent with the "spooked financial markets" explanation. Below are the yields on nominal 10-year Treasury notes, inflation-indexed notes (TIPS), and the difference between the two, which is a widely-used measure of inflation expectations. It looks to me like the big run-up in nominal yields followed the October employment report (released on Nov. 5), not the Fed's quantitative easing announcement of Nov. 2. Furthermore the increase in nominal yields reflects an increase in the real rate of return, not an increase in expected inflation. A possible explanation is that the employment report, which showed much stronger employment growth than economists had anticipated (with a few notable exceptions!), caused an upward revision in forecasts for economic growth, which is ordinarily associated with higher real interest rates (e.g. maybe the Fed will have to move away from its zero interest rate policy sooner than had been expected).
Of course a gajillion other things are happening at the same time. Who knows what the Ireland debt crisis is doing to financial markets right now?
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