We are being prepped for some bad February employment numbers

Floyd Norris joins the crowd noting that February's employment numbers are going to be misleadingly miserable because of the blizzard. He looks back at January 1996 and notes that that month's weak employment report convinced commentators cited in a NY Times article that the economy was slipping into recession:

Some analysts found more evidence of a deteriorating economy in today’s report. “We are flirting with recession,” the National Association of Manufacturers said. And economists at Salomon Brothers, the Wall Street investment house, told clients that “fundamental weakness continues to emerge in timely indicators that are unlikely to be distorted by freak weather.”

The next month's job report showed an increase of over 700,000 in employment. The lesson is, whatever number is reported for February is virtually meaningless.

Still, there has been a disturbing drumbeat of negative economic news of late: new home sales plunge, more trouble in the banking system, consumer confidence falls, ... It's getting tougher and tougher to be an optimist.