New Jersey governor's race

Bruce Larson's analysis of the New Jersey governor's race:

NJ is a mess. The state's fiscal situation is dire, unemployment is worse than in surrounding states, and local property taxes are out of control. What's more, NJ Democrats are corrupt (and this is coming from a true-blue Democrat!), although corruption is probably worse at the local level than at the state level.

Given the context, NJ would seem to be a prime opportunity for Republicans to pick up a statehouse. But astonishingly, Corzine may well win a close one today. The problem is that incumbent failure by itself is insufficient to produce a challenger victory; voters also need an acceptable alternative. And it's far from clear that voters see Christie as such.

Republicans face difficult political terrain in NJ. Registered Democrats substantially outnumber registered Republicans in the state. To win statewide, therefore, Republicans need to win a sizable majority of NJ's large bloc of independent voters. But Christie, by many assessments, has been a disappointment. He has offered nothing specific about how to fix the state's fiscal mess, and the Corzine campaign has attacked him ruthlessly. Polls show him winning only about half (at best) of the state's independent voters.

Christie's chances are also hurt by independent candidate Chris Daggett, who has been polling roughly 8 percent of likely voters. This is a problem for the GOP because Daggett's numbers are strongest among independent voters--the very group that Christie needs to win in order to oust Corzine. His presence in the race may well have the effect of dividing the anti-Corzine vote--leaving Corzine victorious.

If I were a betting man, I'd PROBABLY put my money on a slim Corzine victory. This is only because I've seen a similar scenario (truly bad Democratic incumbent; even worse Republican challenger) play out in NJ again and again. NJ Republicans have not won a statewide race in NJ since 1997 (when Christie Todd Whitman won reelection as governor), and it may well be that the state's Democratic political terrain is simply insurmountable for Republicans.

But I may well be wrong about a slim Corzine victory. (How's that for hedging?) Many New Jerseyans dislike Corzine intensely, and in all my years of watching NJ politics, I've never seen NJ voters so gloomy about the state's future. Voters may be so fed up that they decide it's worth it to take a chance on Christie. In any case, it will be interesting to see what happens in the state today.

(As an aside, local property taxes in NJ will never come down until the state pushes for municipal reform/consolidation. Where I lived in NJ, there were at least five towns in a 25-mile radius from my house--each with its own school system, police department, fire station, etc. New Jerseyans don't seem to want to give up the benefits of these services, but they don't want to pay for them, either.)

My analysis:

Maybe only Republicans named Christie can win statewide elections in NJ.