If current trends continue...

... job growth will turn positive in January. An employment change number today in the -200,000 range is consistent with that trend.

But job growth needs to be around +140,000 for the unemployment rate to fall (usually); that won't happen until around April.

Employment growth (percent)



Bob says that "at business cycle turning points, revisions are in the direction of the inflection." So when the jobs numbers are revised next year we may find that job losses were smaller last summer and this fall than we think they are now, and the period of job growth would come earlier.

** Update **

Today's employment situation report says 190,000 jobs lost in October: right on target. Furthermore, job losses were revised substantially downward (fewer losses than earlier estimated) in August and September. Unemployment up to 10.2% - very bad, but it doesn't change my story.