All signs point to +90 to +100,000 jobs growth in September

Average private sector jobs growth in 2010 = +95,000
Average government sector jobs growth in 2010 = -5000
--> Average total payroll employment growth in 2010 = +90,000

The ISM manufacturing employment index was 56.5 in September, services employment index was 50.2. The ISM says a number greater than 50 indicates growth, but in reality since 1997 manufacturing employment has tended to grow when the ISM manufacturing number > 53.5 and service sector employment has tended to grow when the ISM service number > 47. A simple regression of percent growth in manufacturing (service) employment on ISM manufacturing - 53.5 (ISM service - 47) for the period 1997-2010 gives us the prediction:

Change in manufacturing employment in September 2010 = +17,300
Change in service employment in September 2010 = +84,400
Average change in the rest of payroll employment for 2010 = -2500
Change in total payroll employment = +99,200

And I think initial unemployment insurance claims are telling roughly the same story.