And yet...

ADP reports private employment down 23,000 in March. But: that doesn't count Census workers, of which the government probably hired around 100,000 this month; ADP has been 70,000 too low on average since October; ADP numbers weren't affected by the blizzard in February while BLS's were artificially suppressed. So it's not hard to see BLS reporting +200,000 even in light of ADP's numbers. But I won't be satisfied with anything less than 250,000.